Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Second Week of September 2024

I. Zhengmian (China's Cotton Futures Contract)
(1) Positive Factors
1) Macroeconomic Factors - Before the interest rate cut was confirmed in September, the market speculated on the benefits of a US interest rate cut and the expectation of future domestic monetary easing. The macroeconomic situation is positive in the short term.
2) Demand - The industry is currently experiencing a sequential improvement during the "golden September and silver October," although the magnitude is less than in previous years, the trend is improving, and the industry's worst phase has passed.
3) Valuation - If cotton falls below 13000 (presumably a price point), it represents value investment from both the purchasing and capital perspectives. The lower the valuation, the riskier it is to short sell.
(2) Negative Factors
1) Macroeconomic Factors - Overall domestic household income is still declining. Employment is very poor, and the income of employed people is decreasing. The performance of real-economy businesses remains very poor, and there will be no significant improvement in end-consumer demand.
2) Demand - Market feedback on the early autumn stocking was not ideal, the operating rate in Zhangcha region has already decreased, and end-consumer demand is still unsatisfactory.
3) Supply - This year's agricultural product purchases have all plummeted, such as apples, tomatoes, and cumin from Xinjiang. Cotton will be no exception. Moreover, cotton farmers still receive subsidies, so they will sell as soon as possible.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) Supply - Three consecutive weeks of high temperatures in the US have had a substantial impact on production; In addition, recent heavy rainfall in India and Pakistan is expected to further reduce production.
2) Demand - The Southeast Asian market has recently improved, and demand has marginally improved.
3) Imports - Pakistan and India have recently been the largest buyers of US cotton, mainly due to the impact of rainfall on the listing progress and yield in these two countries. Subsequently, India's CCI (Cotton Corporation of India) may advance its procurement to early October.
(2) Negative Factors
1) Macroeconomic Factors - Last Friday's non-farm payroll data showed a continued slowdown in the labor market, but traders are uncertain about the extent to which the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, causing commodity and stock markets to fall sharply. The market has re-entered a state of trading panic and recession fears.
2) Supply - Clear weather in the US is conducive to subsequent boll opening and harvesting, and last week's rainfall in Texas significantly improved the quality rate in Texas.
3) Demand - The cumulative contract progress for Brazilian and US cotton is still the slowest in the past five years, indicating that global consumption is not as high as previously estimated by the USDA, and future consumption may be revised downward.
Focus: Macroeconomic Factors

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 4th Week of September 2024

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of September 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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