Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of September 2024

I. Zhengmian (China Cotton Futures Contract)
(1) Positive factors
1) Macroeconomic factors - Before the interest rate cut was confirmed in September, the market will speculate on the benefits brought about by the US interest rate cut during this period, and that China will also cooperate with monetary easing. The macroeconomic outlook is positive in the short term.
2) Demand - The current industry is in the peak season of September and October, with better performance compared to previous months. Although the increase is less than in the same period last year, the marginal improvement is evident, and the industry has passed its worst phase.
3) Trading - The intense September-October speculation has ended, and those who entered positions at higher prices have exited the market. The counter-party has also exited, and subsequent short positions need to take profit and exit; in addition, cotton has fallen for a relatively long time, so a decent rebound is also normal.
(2) Negative factors
1) Macroeconomic factors - Overall, domestic residents' income is still declining. On the one hand, the employment situation is very poor, the income of employed people is declining, and the operation of real entities remains very poor. Terminal consumption will not show any improvement.
2) Demand - The sustainability of this round of demand is questionable. The ability of downstream industries to continuously reduce inventories is not strong, it's mostly rigid demand, and the price has already risen by 600 points.
3) Supply - This year's agricultural product purchases have all plummeted, such as apples, tomatoes, and cumin from Xinjiang. Cotton will be no exception, especially since cotton farmers still have subsidies, so they will sell as soon as possible.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive factors
1) Macroeconomic factors - The final value of the US second-quarter GDP growth revised upward slightly to 3.0%, the core PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in July, and the preliminary value of durable goods orders increased 9.9% month-on-month in July, significantly higher than the expected 5%. Overall, the US economy still shows a certain degree of resilience.
2) Supply - The high temperatures in the US for three consecutive weeks have had a substantial impact on output; in addition, heavy rainfall in India and Pakistan is expected to further reduce output.
3) Demand - Southeast Asian markets have recently shown improvement, and demand has marginally improved.
(2) Negative factors
1) Macroeconomic factors - The non-farm payrolls report on Friday is crucial. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will need to pay attention to the risk of a US recession.
2) Supply - Temperatures in Texas have gradually decreased this week, and there may be rain. The weather has improved compared to last week.
3) Demand - The cumulative signing progress of Brazilian and US cotton is still the slowest in the past five years, indicating that global consumption is not as high as USDA previously estimated and may face downward revision.
Focus: US weather

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Second Week of September 2024

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4, August 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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