Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

I. Zhengmian (China's Cotton)
(1) Positive Factors
1) This week's domestic Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) and expectations of stable growth support the market. In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector's activity level.
2) Downstream recovery is slow, with weaving mills and textile companies continuing to increase operating rates. Raw material inventories at yarn mills are declining, while cotton yarn inventories have slightly increased month-on-month; weaving mills see a decrease in both raw materials and finished products. Processing profits are near breakeven.
3) Basis is firm. Upstream spot pricing has surpassed half of the total, and spot transactions improved last week.
(2) Negative Factors
1) On February 27, US President Trump announced that the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4 as scheduled. He also stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would increase by an additional 10% on the same day.
2) Industrial supply is sufficient, commercial inventories are slowly declining, and are at historically high levels. As of February 15, national cotton commercial inventories totaled 5.6811 million tons, a decrease of 0.0656 million tons compared to the end of January.
3) The results of the China Cotton Association's second 2025 cotton planting intention survey (January 2025) show that the intended planting area for 2025 is 44.366 million mu (approximately 2.96 million hectares), a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with Xinjiang up 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous survey.
II. American Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) The USDA Outlook Forum lowered its forecast for the new crop year's US cotton planting area. The projected planting area for 2025 is 10 million acres, a decrease of 1.18 million acres year-on-year (10.55%); cotton production is expected to be 14.6 million bales, a year-on-year increase of 1.32%; and ending stocks are forecast at 4.8 million bales, a year-on-year decrease of 2%.
2) The US grain-cotton price ratio indicates that planting cotton does not have a price advantage.
3) India's cotton marketing peak has passed for this year, and CCI continues to procure cotton.
4) Southeast Asia's operating rate increased slightly week-on-week.
(2) Negative Factors
1) CONAB statistics show that as of February 23, Brazilian cotton planting for the 2024/25 season was 99.9% complete, a 4 percentage point increase month-on-month and a 0.4 percentage point increase year-on-year. Brazilian cotton planting has been largely completed. The planting area for the 24/25 season reached 2.035 million hectares.
2) The amount of unsold US cotton remains at a historically high level.
3) US cotton weekly export sales fell sharply compared to the previous week, but overall progress is similar to previous years.
4) CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data shows that speculative short positions increased last week, and the net short position ratio increased. As of the week ending February 25, speculative long positions increased by 354 contracts, while short positions increased by 6772 contracts.
Points to Watch: US-China relations, US cotton planting, US cotton exports, domestic demand

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 4th Week of February 2025

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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