Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of February 2025

I. Zhengmian (China's cotton futures contract)
(1) Positive Factors
1) Trump's 10% tariff has been implemented, and the "parcel shipping restrictions" have also been lifted. The short-term impact of the tariff policy has been realized.
2) The structure of downstream yarn mills is healthy, with low finished product and raw material inventories, resulting in profits for domestic yarn mills in the near term.
3) Since the beginning of the year, the domestic basis has been relatively firm, with a slight increase.
(2) Negative Factors
1) Trump's unpredictable nature and the unclear future of tariffs in the US-China trade war mean that the worst impact of the trade war is yet to come.
2) Looking ahead to next year's Xinjiang planting area, it is highly likely to see increased production.
3) As of now, the hedging ratio has exceeded 50%, and hedging demand is relatively strong above 13800.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) Judging from the recent price ratio of US cotton/US corn, US cotton is gradually at a disadvantage. The price ratio of US cotton to other agricultural products remains unstable, and speculation may begin with the announcement of the NCC area.
2) The fund's short positions are at their largest historical level for this period, and there is little room for further shorting.
3) Southeast Asia's bilateral inventories are not high, and there is still firm demand for US cotton at low prices.
(2) Negative Factors
1) US cotton exports have not been fully adjusted, and further downward adjustments are expected later, which will put pressure on US cotton.
2) The 03 contract is again facing the contradiction of unpriced upstream ONCALL. Selling pressure will be significant before the first notification date.
3) Long-term suppression of large supply.
Focus: US-China relations

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 3rd week of February 2025

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of January 2025

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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