Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of January 2025

I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) After the holiday, domestic policies will likely be implemented intensively, and long positions may be willing to exit before the holiday when prices are close to previous lows.
2) This year, downstream replenishment before the holiday was very weak. On the one hand, there were indeed no orders, but a large part of the reason is that downstream and terminal companies are waiting for risks to subside after Trump takes office before placing orders and making production plans, so there may be replenishment after the New Year.
3) The spot basis is relatively stable.
(II) Negative Factors
1) Domestic macroeconomic policies have been temporarily implemented. There are no incremental policy expectations before the New Year, and domestic macroeconomics cannot boost the market further.
2) Large downstream factories have basically finished stocking up before the holiday, and downstream companies will gradually go on holiday after the 10th.
3) As of now, the hedging ratio has not exceeded half, so if prices rise, the hedging demand above will be relatively rigid.
II. American Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) Judging from the recent price ratio of American cotton/American corn, American cotton is gradually at a disadvantage. The price ratio of American cotton to other agricultural products is still unstable, and there are expectations of speculation on the planting area of American cotton in February and March.
2) Funds have the largest historical short position ratio in the same period, and there is not much room for further shorting later.
3) From the latest contracts, it can be seen that futures trading is active in Southeast Asian markets below 69 cents.
(II) Negative Factors
1) After Trump takes office, he may increase tariffs on Chinese clothing in the future, and the demand for American cotton is expected to decrease.
2) Brazil will most likely increase production next year, which shows that the current price has not reduced the planting area next year.
3) The current demand for American cotton is still weak, and the operating rate in Southeast Asia continues to decline slowly every week.
Focus: Sino-US relations

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of January 2025

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 5, December 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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