Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of December 2024

I. Zhengmian (China's cotton futures contract)
(A) Positive factors
1) The market has overreacted to the Trump risk. Currently, downstream sectors are showing rigid stocking and purchasing, and traders are lowering their risk appetite and reducing inventory. There may be replenishment after Trump takes office and his policies are implemented.
2) The current valuation of cotton is low, both in absolute price and relative to polyester staple fiber and viscose.
3) The current price is below the acquisition cost; we will observe the 01 contract for potential convergence between futures and spot prices.
(B) Negative factors
1) Domestic macroeconomic policies have been implemented for the time being. There are no new policy expectations before the year-end, and domestic macroeconomic policies cannot further boost the market.
2) As futures prices decline, downstream sectors keep postponing replenishment expectations, and yarn mills' finished goods inventories are again at high levels. Replenishment before the year-end is expected to be weak and cannot boost the market.
3) The per unit yield of cotton in southern Xinjiang is trending upwards. Cotton has relatively guaranteed returns compared to other agricultural products; next year, cotton production is still expected to increase both in acreage and output.
II. US cotton
(A) Positive factors
1) Fund adjustments. As of December 17, the net long position of funds has reached a historical low of -11% for the same period. Extremes tend to reverse, and funds may lack enough short selling ammunition later; the probability of a rise in the net long position of funds is high.
2) Up to now, 60% of India's daily listed volume has entered CCI, with a cumulative purchase of about 600,000 tons. Continuous purchases by India are expected to change international trade flows.
3) Farmers' support for price stability. Judging from the 03 contract's on-call situation, farmers have a strong will to maintain prices.
(B) Negative factors
1) Trump's future administration may increase tariffs on Chinese clothing, and demand for US cotton is expected to decrease.
2) Brazil's cotton production will most likely increase next year, as the current price has not reduced the planting area for the next year.
3) The current demand for US cotton remains weak, and the operating rate in Southeast Asia continues to decline slowly every week.
Focus: US-China relations

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 5, December 2024

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 3rd week of December 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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