Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of November 2024

I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) The market may have overestimated the negative impact of the US election on commodities, especially since clothing exports have now completely replaced foreign cotton, and emotions will be released once expectations are realized.
2) Currently, the downstream inventory structure is healthy, with both yarn mills' raw material and finished product inventories being relatively low. Moreover, yarn mills are currently profitable, and the inventory at the trader's public warehouse is only 50%.
3) From the perspective of absolute price, the price of cotton around 14000 is considered a low valuation. If the valuation falls further, spot businesses and traders will directly buy goods on the market.
(2) Negative Factors
1) After the US election, whether Harris or Trump takes office, it will be hostile to China in the long run.
2) Due to the low absolute valuation, the hedging ratio of downstream companies is not high, which means that the hedging pressure has not been fully released, and the hedging demand will be large after the market rises.
3) Marginal downstream demand has weakened again. The market has entered the traditional off-season in November, with yarn mills' finished product inventories accumulating slightly, and fabric mills mainly focusing on digesting existing inventories.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) When the US cotton balance sheet shows the highest supply and the highest inventory-sales ratio, the price fell to 67 cents. In recent months, production has been continuously revised downward, and the inventory-sales ratio has been continuously reduced. The period of greatest fundamental pressure has ended, and prices have gradually recovered from their lows.
2) Judging from recent domestic and overseas demand and orders, the overseas market is better than the domestic market, so Southeast Asian buyers are actively purchasing at prices below 70 cents.
3) In the short term, cotton farmers' price support still provides some support to the market.
(2) Negative Factors
1) With the US election approaching, if Trump takes office and increases tariffs on Chinese clothing, the demand for US cotton is expected to decrease.
2) Market supply is concentrated in November, which is the period of greatest supply pressure.
3) From the attitude of cotton farmers, it can be seen that cotton farmers have recently become more flexible and have begun to gradually sell cotton at specified prices.
Focus: US Election
 

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of November 2024

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 5 of October 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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