Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 3rd week of October 2024

I. Zhengmian (China's cotton futures contract)
(1) Positive Factors
1) The recent proactive fiscal and monetary policies of the country have strengthened confidence in the stock market and commodities. In the short term, the macroeconomic sentiment is bullish, and cotton, with its low valuation, is more likely to rise than fall.
2) Recently, the raw material inventories of yarn mills and fabric mills have been continuously declining. The most bearish phase of the industrial chain has passed, and the overall downstream capital occupation pressure has been greatly relieved.
3) From the acquisition perspective, there is currently a contango in the futures and spot markets. For the 01 contract, no one will deliver goods at a loss.
(2) Negative Factors
1) This year, the daily processing volume of Xinjiang cotton is significantly faster than in previous years, indicating that cotton farmers are quite active in selling their cotton, which will make it difficult for the price of seed cotton to rise.
2) Due to continuous losses over the past two years and the recent economic situation, the hedging mentality of cotton ginning factories is very active, which will put enormous hedging pressure on a large number of listed futures contracts.
3) In the short term, consumption has deteriorated again, and no significant increase is expected in the medium to long term. With the oversupply situation, there is upward pressure on cotton prices.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) Judging from the adjustments in the monthly report, the most stressful period for the global cotton market has passed, and the market price reflects the lowest price during the most bearish period. The current price is relatively consistent with the current balance sheet.
2) Judging from recent spot prices, downstream buyers are more active when the market price is below 72 cents.
3) Currently, short positions held by US cotton funds are overly concentrated. As short sellers exit the market, it will lead to a significant rebound in the market. The recent rebound is due to short sellers exiting the market.
(2) Negative Factors
1) Currently, judging from the operating rates in Southeast Asia and recent US cotton sales, downstream demand is very weak, and the sales pressure on US cotton will increase in the future.
2) Judging from the planting expectations for next year in Brazil, the profitability of cotton in Brazil is still better than other crops, and the pressure of future bumper harvests remains.
3) In the October monthly report, global consumption remains at 25.4 million tons. Judging from the current sales progress of Brazilian cotton and US cotton sales, there is still room for downward adjustment in global consumption.
Focus: Domestic acquisition prices
 

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of October 2024

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 4th Week of September 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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