Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 3rd week of May 2024

I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) Positive market trading sentiment, overall commodity macro expectations are strong, and the situation where cotton is below the average is easily targeted by funds.
2) The structural contradictions in cotton are prominent, Xinjiang cotton inventory is tight, and the strength of the basis also reflects this factor.
3) Currently, cotton prices are undervalued, and large traders have reduced costs through options and other means, so cotton prices are very resilient, and funds will enter the market in a "pyramid" style if prices fall further.
(II) Negative Factors
1) The weather for the new year of Zhengzhou cotton is better, with expected yield recovery and an increase in mid-yield compared to the previous year. The global supply side is expected to have a bumper harvest in the new year, and cotton resources held by large traders will be less competitive in the next year.
2) In April, retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles were 104.8 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of clothing retail sales remains historically low. In the absence of a significant increase in residents' income, cotton consumption remains rigid.
3) Downstream industries have entered the traditional off-season. In the past week, downstream finished product inventories have accumulated significantly, and industrial marginal variables have deteriorated.
II. US Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) High temperatures have been significant in the Texas region recently, and a high-temperature warning remains for the next month. Be wary of subsequent weather speculation.
2) The net long position of funds has rapidly fallen to 3%, reaching a historically low level, proving that this wave of long positions has retreated, and the multi-killing situation is expected to end.
3) The valuation of the July US cotton contract has currently entered the mid-to-low valuation range, and with extremely low end-of-period inventory, the current price does not match the extremely low inventory-sales ratio.
(II) Negative Factors
1) US cotton warehouse receipts increased rapidly last week by 26,000 bales to 192,000 bales, equivalent to 43,700 tons. The renewed increase in warehouse receipts puts pressure on near-month contracts.
2) The operating rates of India, Vietnam, and Pakistan in Southeast Asia have decreased month-on-month, and demand has marginally weakened.
3) To date, the weather in the United States and Brazil continues to favor cotton production. There are no weather problems.
Focus: Whether Southeast Asian buying is active

previous：

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of May 2024

next：

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of May 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

Details

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

Details

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

Details

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

Details

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

Sorry，当前栏目暂无内容!

您可以查看其他栏目或返回 首页

Sorry，The current column has no content!

You can view other columns or return Home