Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of April 2024


I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) Downstream consumption remains resilient, overall operating rates remain high, finished goods inventories are at a low-to-medium level, cotton consumption has not decreased, and downstream buyers are actively bidding for cotton at current low prices.
2) Major suppliers are still holding prices steady, and their resources are not currently available to the market.
3) A significant portion of this year's imports are from national reserves, and these supplies will only enter the market when prices rise to a certain high level.
(II) Negative Factors
1) Spinning mills and weaving mills are once again entering the off-season, operating rates show signs of decline, finished goods inventories are slowly rising, and negative factors from downstream are accumulating.
2) Recently, with the opening of the price difference window between domestic and international markets, imported cotton is supplying the market, and after future quota increases, these resources will quickly supply the market.
3) As of now, the weather in Xinjiang has been favorable, with characteristics of a bumper harvest, and next year's output is expected to increase compared to normal years.
II. US Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) US cotton shipments were large in a single week, and the shipment progress is still higher than the five-year average, the problem of low US cotton terminal inventories has not been alleviated.
2) The net long position of funds has rapidly dropped to 14%, reaching a historically low level, indicating that this wave of bullish sentiment has ended, and the 'long liquidation' scenario is expected to end.
3) Southeast Asian raw material inventories are low, and with the slow start of the US apparel inventory cycle, there is rigid demand for US cotton.
(II) Negative Factors
1) US cotton warehouse receipts are continuously increasing, the latest warehouse receipts are 42,000 tons, the second highest level in nearly ten years.
2) The operating rates in Southeast Asia (India, Vietnam and Pakistan) have decreased month-on-month, and demand has marginally weakened.
3) The weather has consistently favored the growth and planting of US cotton, and global weather conditions are also good. Next year's supply-side growth rate will exceed the consumption growth rate, and the supply-demand situation for the next year will shift towards relaxation.
Focus: Whether Southeast Asian buying is active
 

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance


On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.


Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025


1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.


In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.


In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.


President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference


On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.