Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of April 2024


I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) Downstream improvement this week, with yarn and fabric mills reporting increased orders, indicating a short-term uptick in demand.
2) Currently, some large enterprises are reluctant to supply the market due to cost issues, thus limiting the supply of Zhengzhou cotton unless prices rise significantly.
3) Recent downstream improvement has helped yarn traders and fabric mills reduce inventories, gradually bringing downstream inventories to a healthy level.
(II) Negative Factors
1) After the recent sharp decline in US cotton prices, the import window opened briefly, prompting some traders to buy foreign cotton and hedge Zhengzhou cotton.
2) From the demand side, overall domestic orders remain weak, with downstream demand mainly focused on replenishing necessary stocks.
3) From the supply side, the total supply this year is not insufficient; structural contradictions do not determine the trend.
II. US Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) US cotton saw a large single-week shipment volume, and the shipment progress remains above the five-year average, indicating that the low year-end inventory problem of US cotton has not been alleviated.
2) After the decline in US cotton prices, the basis for foreign cotton has stabilized, and the willingness to purchase has increased significantly, suggesting that the underlying demand support for US cotton is still relatively strong.
3) The US economy is performing well, with 303,000 new non-farm jobs added in March, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 215,000.
(II) Negative Factors
1) US cotton spot prices lack competitiveness compared to Brazilian and Australian cotton; however, delivery warrants have a clear advantage, with warrants increasing rapidly to 25,000 tons last week.
2) The net long positions of US cotton funds have been declining over the past two weeks, suggesting that long positions are temporarily exiting; the latest week saw a decrease of 0.5 percentage points to 31%.
3) The proportion of unpriced contracts for the May contract has been continuously declining and is at a historical low.
Points to Watch: Whether the US cotton basis will increase

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance


On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.


Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025


1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.


In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.


In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.


President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference


On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.