Opportunities and risks coexist in the global demand for clothing in 2024

The US economy continues to show strong growth momentum, while Japan appears to be turning a corner after its "lost three decades," emerging from the shadow of prolonged deflation. The Eurozone, however, remains mired in recession due to high inflation and the energy crisis. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently predicted a widening divergence in global economic growth, raising its 2024 US growth forecast from 1.5% to 2.1%, but lowering its forecast for the Eurozone from 0.9% to 0.6%, highlighting the disparity in economic prospects between the US and Europe. Since January and February, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI has remained above the breakeven line, ending 16 consecutive months of contraction, indicating a marginal improvement in external demand at the start of the year. In 2024, the world economy will remain a mix of positive trends and risks, showing bright spots amidst uneven recovery, but also facing challenges.
 
US consumer demand rebounds
 
According to US Department of Commerce data, US retail sales rebounded by 0.6% month-on-month in February, and the year-on-year growth rate increased to 1.5%. February saw President's Day in the US, coupled with warmer weather, leading to a rebound in consumer demand. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in March was 76.5, down 0.4 from February, but overall it remains on an upward trend. In February, retail sales in clothing and apparel stores reached $26.29 billion, down 0.5% month-on-month, but up 1.3% year-on-year.
 
Eurozone retail continues to face pressure
 
According to preliminary data from Eurostat, Eurozone inflation in February grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly slower than the 2.8% in January. The latest data from Eurostat shows that the year-on-year growth rate of the retail sales index in the 19 Eurozone countries in January was -1.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2023, and has been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months. With interest rate cuts by the ECB possibly still some time off, the Eurozone retail growth rate is likely to remain under pressure.
 
Japanese consumption continues to decline
 
In its monthly economic report released on February 21, the Japanese Cabinet Office downgraded its assessment of the economic situation for the first time in three months. The report stated that the Japanese economy, while appearing stagnant recently, is still recovering moderately. The Japanese government finalized a comprehensive economic stimulus package totaling approximately ¥17 trillion (approximately RMB 871.3 billion) in November last year, which is expected to boost personal consumption growth by 1.2%. In 2023, monthly consumption expenditure for households with two or more people was ¥290,000 (approximately RMB 14,290), a 2.6% decrease in real terms from the previous year. In January, Japan's textile and apparel retail sales totaled ¥703 billion, down 8.3% year-on-year.
 
In terms of market demand and export order trends, there has been some positive recovery and improvement in the first half of this year compared to last year. However, due to the still unstable recovery of external demand, geopolitical conflicts, and the "super election year," there are still many uncertainties and risks and challenges for exports throughout the year.

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Developed countries see a general decrease in clothing imports in January 2024

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Clothing export volume and price increase and decrease in January-February 2024

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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