Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of October 2023

I. Zhengmian (China's cotton futures contract)
(1) Positive factors
1) During the National Day holiday, it was discovered that the reduction in per unit yield during the harvest in northern Xinjiang may exceed expectations, causing the market to lower its production estimate by about 300,000 tons. Currently, the estimated range is around 500,000 tons, plus or minus 200,000 tons.
2) The price of machine-harvested cotton in Xinjiang is around 8 yuan/kg, which translates to a cotton cost of 18200-18400 yuan/ton. The purchase price will not collapse suddenly in a short period of time.
3) Domestic consumption has bottomed out and rebounded. Given the loose macroeconomic policies, we are optimistic about consumption in the new year.
(2) Negative factors
1) The temperature in Xinjiang is currently rising, which is conducive to harvesting. The harvesting progress is expected to accelerate significantly, putting pressure on the market due to hedging.
2) The policy stance is clear, and continuous reserve releases continue to suppress the market, shifting supply from tight to loose.
3) Downstream sectors are beginning to deteriorate. Downstream companies report that this year's "golden September, silver October" performance has been unsatisfactory, and future orders remain uncertain.
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive factors
1) As the state reserves continue to be released, there will be a need to purchase foreign cotton to replenish stocks in the future.
2) Reduced production in the Northern Hemisphere (China and the United States). Uncertainty remains in the Indian market, and Pakistan is facing pest problems.
3) US cotton holdings are increasing, and market interest in US cotton trading is rising.
(2) Negative factors
1) Weak downstream demand. US cotton above 85 cents is completely unacceptable in the Southeast Asian market, and US cotton lacks competitiveness.
2) US cotton faces fierce competition from Brazilian and Australian cotton.
3) Orders from European and American end users remain lacking, although there has been some recent improvement, the sustainability of this improvement is questionable.
Focus: Xinjiang cotton purchase price
 

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 3 of October 2023

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of September 2023

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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