Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of July 2023


I. Zhengmian (China's Cotton Futures Contract)
(1) Positive Factors
1) The industry is currently in a virtuous cycle, with yarn mills' finished goods inventories remaining at a relatively low level, and yarn mill operating rates have not been significantly reduced.
2) Quota policy issued, negative news has landed. In the short term, imported cotton cannot promptly replenish the market, and the problem of tight domestic spot resources cannot be solved quickly.
3) Some traders have begun to pre-sell new cotton. To avoid risks, traders will build long positions in the market.
(2) Negative Factors
1) Reserve release and quota policies have been implemented successively, with policy suppressing price increases and increasing supply-side pressure.
2) With the opening of import windows for domestic and foreign yarn, an import advantage of nearly 2000 makes imported yarn quickly replenish the market.
3) Downstream demand enters a significant off-season, and inventories in the yarn trading sector continue to accumulate, reaching near historical highs, putting enormous pressure on the yarn trading sector.
II. American Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) Since June, rainfall in Texas has decreased significantly. Drought in Texas has increased in recent weeks, the good rate has declined, and there is no rainfall forecast for Texas in the coming week.
2) The destocking of US apparel is coming to an end, and it is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter. Southeast Asian countries have seen two consecutive months of positive year-on-year growth in clothing exports in May and June.
3) Net long positions of US cotton funds have increased for three consecutive weeks, and funds are gradually becoming more bullish on US cotton.
(2) Negative Factors
1) The global supply and demand pattern for the 23/24 season remains relatively loose, with the stock-sales ratio higher than the five-year average.
2) As of the latest update, India's planting progress is 86%, the same as last year. Current planting and rainfall are normal.
3) In the past two weeks, with the rise in US cotton prices, the number of unpriced contracts has increased, indicating that cotton farmers at this price do not believe that prices will continue to rise.
Focus: Weather

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance


On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.


Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025


1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.


In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.


In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.


President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference


On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.