President Huang Hongyu: Short-term cotton prices are strong domestically and weak internationally

On May 5th, the Quancheng Cotton Forum, hosted by the Shandong Cotton Association, was successfully held in Jinan, Shandong. This forum brought together well-known scholars and guests in the industry to analyze policy trends, look ahead to the future market, and discuss the opportunities and challenges of industry development through themed discussions and roundtable forums. They listened to insightful opinions and sparked intellectual exchanges on the most concerning issues within the industry. The following is a summary of the views of Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, for your reference.
The current view on cotton price trends is that the domestic market will show fluctuating strength, while the foreign market will be relatively weak. From a macroeconomic perspective, China's macroeconomic policies and economic cycles are showing an upward recovery trend. In terms of the industry, companies are currently maintaining profitable, low-inventory states. Domestic consumption is on an upward growth trend after the lifting of epidemic restrictions, with increased textile and apparel consumption, especially in high-count yarns where both price and volume are increasing. On the supply side, low-temperature replanting has occurred in Xinjiang for the new cotton season, and the market atmosphere is enthusiastic. The global macroeconomic background is characterized by high inflation, and the continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are cooling the economy. High interest rates are putting significant pressure on the market. From an industry perspective, US textile and apparel imports are declining, while inventories are still at historically high levels. Textile and apparel exports from Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh have decreased, and global consumer spending is declining, presenting an overall weak pattern.
In the future, the rhythm of cotton prices in China will also be stronger. However, it is worth noting that macroeconomic data such as the manufacturing PMI are currently performing poorly, and the sustainability of China's economic recovery remains to be seen. In terms of industry, the explosive growth in exports in March was mainly from ASEAN countries and the Russian market. It is also necessary to observe whether future textile and apparel export orders can be sustained.
Cotton-related companies should avoid haste and not take large positions without a high probability of success. Furthermore, contingency plans should be in place when making decisions. Based on your own judgment of the market, have a correction plan and take action promptly. If necessary, stop losses promptly. This year is a recovery period for the market. In the trading sector, operations should be conducted after careful consideration. In the spot market, focus on quick turnover and take profits quickly. In a volatile market, it's even more important to grasp the rhythm and combine futures and options tools to achieve profitability while managing risk.

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A delegation of leaders from the National Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives' Agricultural Materials and Cotton and Linen Bureau visited Tongzhou Cotton for research and guidance.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the "Stable Enterprises, Secure Farmers, Protecting the Real Economy - Quanzhou Cotton Forum"

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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