Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of January 2023

I. China Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) 2023 is set as a year of recovery. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, with an economic growth target set at around 5%.
2) Spot prices continue to rise, market bullish sentiment is strong, the outlook for the future is good, yarn mills are shipping smoothly, and overall inventory has fallen to a historical low.
3) The peak of domestic COVID-19 infections has passed, and offline consumption is entering a rapid recovery phase.
(II) Negative Factors
1) In 2023, with high interest rates in Europe and the US, economic vitality is suppressed, and the foreign economy continues to decline. Domestic exports are declining, the real estate market is sluggish, local finances are tight, and residents' income has not increased. It is inappropriate to be overly optimistic about domestic recovery in 2023.
2) After the relaxation of the epidemic, downstream industries have not seen a simultaneous improvement. Only the yarn mills have successfully reduced inventories; inventories of fabric mills, printing and dyeing plants, and the terminal clothing market remain high. Currently, it is more of a restoration of confidence. If later consumer expectations are not met, there is a risk of a decline in cotton prices.
3) Xinjiang's acquisition volume has currently reached 6.1 million tons. Under the double blow of destocking in Europe and America and the Xinjiang ban, 2022/23 is a loose supply and demand situation domestically.
II. US Cotton
(I) Positive Factors
1) Non-farm employment in the US rose by 223,000 last Friday, exceeding market expectations. The US job market remains strong, and the economy remains resilient.
2) As of the end of December, India's cotton arrivals were 1.35 million tons, down 40% year-on-year. Arrivals are significantly behind, and production may be reduced to around 5.4 million tons.
3) The current cotton-grain price ratio is too low, coupled with increased production costs, which is not conducive to cotton planting next year. According to the latest survey by Cotton Farmer Magazine, cotton prices are expected to decrease by 7% next year.
(II) Negative Factors
1) The US has not stopped raising interest rates, and high interest rates have a substantial impact on the real economy, and the probability of the economy falling into a mild recession in the future is relatively high.
2) Due to US interest rate hikes, Southeast Asian countries are experiencing foreign exchange shortages. Letter of credit problems have forced demand countries to reduce their demand for US cotton.
3) The destocking of cotton inventories in Europe and the US still requires a destock period of nearly half a year.
Points to Watch : Progress of cotton arrivals in India
 

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, 3rd week of January 2023

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1, January 2023

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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