Tongzhou Cotton Market Weekly Report, Week 3 of December 2022

I. Zhengzhou Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) For domestic consumption, the stage suppressed by the epidemic is over. With the relaxation of the epidemic and the country's "expanding domestic demand" policy stimulus next year, domestic consumption will rebound from its bottom.
2) The yarn mills have low raw material and finished product inventories, which is conducive to immediate production. Yarn mills are still affected by the epidemic, with worker shortages and inability to achieve full production capacity. After the return of workers later, the yarn mill operating rate will continue to recover.
3) Cotton has obvious support below, and yarn mills and traders said that around 13500 can establish inventory for a long time.
(2) Negative Factors
1) The spirit conveyed at the Central Economic Work Conference on Friday emphasized "stabilizing the economy," and the market's previous expectation of strong stimulus was dashed, with the policy focusing more on high-quality development.
2) Earlier longs were based on the fact that cotton prices were at an absolute undervaluation of 13000, and they made a lot of allocations. However, the current price range of 14000-14500 is not an undervaluation zone. If longs continue to push up prices, the undervaluation logic will collapse.
3) Terminal orders show no sign of improvement. In the first two months after the epidemic was relaxed, residents transitioned from passive home confinement to active home confinement, and domestic consumption will not improve in the short term. It is expected that there will be no reversal in terminal clothing orders before the year.
 
II. US Cotton
(1) Positive Factors
1) From the perspective of agricultural product price ratios, the price ratio of cotton to soybeans and cotton to corn are both at historically low levels. On the one hand, cotton has fallen more sharply than other agricultural products, and on the other hand, the current agricultural product price ratios are not conducive to cotton planting next year.
2) US cotton net signings remain positive each week, proving that there are still buyers, and US cotton still has a competitive advantage.
3) US cotton has strong support near 80. The USDA report in December significantly lowered global consumption by 710,000 tons, but the price still did not fall below 80, proving that there is strong buying at around 80.
(2) Negative Factors
1) US retail sales of clothing in November were $26.35 billion, down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.7% from the same period last year. After adjusting for inflation, US terminal clothing sales continued to decline.
2) The net long position of funds fell by 3 percentage points to 7%, and non-commercial long positions decreased by 2738 contracts to 62,000 contracts.
3) Due to weak demand in the Indian market, cotton prices fell by 3 cents a week. As spot prices in the Indian market continue to fall, there is pressure on US cotton prices.
 
Focus: Progress of listing in India
 

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 4 of December 2022

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 2 of December 2022

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance

On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.

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Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025

1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.

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Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.

In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.

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In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.
President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.

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President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference

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