In October, the decline in China's home textile exports further widened, mainly due to decreased exports to the US and European markets. Firstly, inflation reduced overall consumer spending in the US and Europe; secondly, "stay-at-home consumption" was replaced by outdoor activities and tourism, fundamentally changing consumption patterns and product structures; thirdly, with the Christmas season approaching, some consumers adjusted their spending timeframes. Details are as follows:
The decline widened Exports of bedding, curtains, and other home products decreased significantly
From January to October, China's home textile exports totaled US\$27.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.76%, with the cumulative decline widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Since the second quarter, the cumulative growth rate of home textile exports has narrowed month by month, turning from growth to decline in September.
Specifically, exports of bedding and curtains, among other home products, experienced a significant decline, pulling down overall exports, with decreases of 5.8% and 15.5% respectively; exports of tablecloths, kitchenware, and blankets, which can be used outdoors, maintained growth, with increases of 14%, 14%, and 5.4% respectively, but the cumulative growth rate narrowed compared to the previous month; exports of towels and other decorative products saw a slight decline, with decreases of 0.03% and 2.1% respectively.
Most product exports showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing prices
In the first 10 months of this year, except for kitchenware and towel products, whose export unit prices decreased by 7.1% and 0.1% respectively, the export unit prices of other product categories maintained growth. Among them, the export unit prices of curtains and carpets increased significantly, by 10.1% and 10.3% respectively, while the export unit prices of bedding, blankets, and other product categories maintained a small increase, ranging from 2% to 5.5%.
In terms of export volume, the export volume of blankets, tablecloths, and kitchenware remained positive, with kitchenware showing faster growth at 22.7%. The export volume of bedding, curtains, towels, and carpets decreased, with bedding and curtains experiencing the largest declines at 10.6% and 23.2% respectively.
Monthly exports have declined for three consecutive months
In October, home textile exports totaled US\$2.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months, and the decline is gradually widening. From the monthly export situation, the export situation of last year generally showed a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end. The export volume in each month of the fourth quarter was over US\$3 billion. Considering the current monthly export scale and the overall export situation, it is expected that China's home textile exports will face significant downward pressure in the fourth quarter of this year.
The decline in exports to the US and Europe further widened
In the first 10 months, home textile exports to the US totaled US\$8.81 billion, a decrease of 9.1%, with the cumulative decline widening by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month; exports to the EU totaled US\$3.54 billion, a decrease of 7.7%, with the cumulative decline widening by 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous month; exports to Japan totaled US\$2.5 billion, an increase of 2.6%, with the cumulative increase narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Among other major markets, driven by the benefits of the RCEP, exports to ASEAN maintained rapid growth, reaching US\$3.25 billion, an increase of 23.5%, making ASEAN surpass Japan as China's third-largest home textile export market. Exports to the UK and Russia decreased significantly, both by more than 16%.
Overall recovery in the Yangtze River Delta region is weak
In the second quarter, exports in the Yangtze River Delta region slowed due to the impact of epidemic control measures. Since the third quarter, the decline in exports in various provinces and cities has narrowed, but the overall performance of the region remains weak. In the first 10 months, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanghai ranked among the top five provinces and cities in China's home textile exports. Exports from Shandong and Guangdong maintained growth, with increases of 1.6% and 18.2% respectively. Exports from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai decreased, with declines of 5%, 10%, and 11.2% respectively. After the decline in exports from the three provinces narrowed at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, the decline widened further in October.
Among other provinces and cities, Hunan, Hubei, and Xinjiang experienced faster export growth, all exceeding 50%.
Major market share remains stable Growth rate lower than main competitors
GTF statistics show that from January to September, the US imported US\$14.29 billion worth of home textile products, a decrease of 2.2%, with the cumulative decline widening by 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. China ranked first in imports, with imports totaling US\$6.37 billion, a decrease of 2.1%, accounting for 44.6% of US imports, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among other countries, US imports from Pakistan and Vietnam increased significantly, by 8.6% and 23% respectively, with both increases narrowing slightly compared to the previous month.
From January to September, the EU imported US\$8.89 billion worth of home textile products, an increase of 10.2%, with the cumulative growth rate narrowing by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. China ranked first in imports, with imports totaling US\$3.32 billion, an increase of 8.6%, with the cumulative growth rate narrowing by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month, accounting for 37.3% of EU imports, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among other countries, the EU saw faster import growth from Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, with growth rates ranging from 10% to 32%.
From January to September, Japan imported US\$2.65 billion worth of home textile products, an increase of 4.5%, with the cumulative growth rate remaining flat compared to the previous month. China ranked first in imports, with imports totaling US\$1.98 billion, an increase of 3.8%, with the cumulative growth rate narrowing by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, accounting for 74.6% of Japan's imports, basically unchanged compared to the same period last year. Among other countries, Japan saw relatively faster import growth from Vietnam, with an increase of 16.4%.
In summary, from an international perspective, in October and November, US retailers and department stores such as Target and Macy's saw a decline in sales performance, with sales mainly focused on clearing inventory, and new orders remained at low levels. However, importers also indicated that inventory levels have improved significantly compared to previous months, and they are confident about the upcoming Christmas season sales. At the same time, they are adopting a conservative purchasing strategy for the first quarter of next year and will be more sensitive to order prices.
Domestically, although exports have declined for three consecutive months, the overall export volume remains between US$2.8 billion and US$3 billion. Meanwhile, our market share in the US, Europe, and Japan has remained relatively stable compared to the same periods in 2020 and 2021. The fourth quarter of last year was a peak period for exports, especially October, when exports reached US$3.37 billion, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in October this year. Exports in November and December last year were US$3.17 billion and US$3.04 billion respectively. If the current monthly export volume is maintained, the trend of continuous year-on-year decline in monthly exports is expected to continue until the end of the year, but the year-on-year decline in monthly exports in November and December is expected to narrow to within 10%. Overall annual exports will see a slight year-on-year decline, expected to be within 5%. Currently, the industry should actively adjust its product structure and control production costs to actively respond to changes in market procurement trends and product structures, as well as the increasing price sensitivity of consumers.
