Tongzhou Market Information Brief, Week 1 of September 2021
I. American Cotton
Positive Factors:
1) Friday's US non-farm payroll data was far below expectations, delaying the progress of the US economic recovery.
2) Up to now, US liquidity has not yet been withdrawn, and the effect of monetary stock is still present.
3) There is a very high probability of China's cotton reserves being increased, which is beneficial to US cotton exports.
Negative Factors:
1) The Federal Reserve has confirmed the Taper schedule, and will confirm balance sheet reduction by the end of this year.
2) The US good rate is currently at an absolute historical high, and the growth condition is good.
3) The Phase One US-China trade deal is about to expire, and the status of US cotton exports depends on US-China relations.
II. Zhengzhou Cotton
Positive Factors:
1) Domestic new cotton is on the market, cottonseed processing capacity has increased, and coupled with the expectation of reduced production, the shortage of ginning is alleviated, which is reflected in the strong production and consumption.
2) The purchase price is highly correlated with the futures price. During the acquisition period, futures prices are mostly at a discount or parity. However, if futures prices fall sharply, some people will exchange spot for futures, and futures prices will rise.
Negative Factors:
1) Macroeconomic drivers are weakening, tightening expectations, PMI is peaking and falling, and economic downturn is confirmed.
2) Cotton is in a historically high valuation range.
3) The profits of yarn mills and textile mills are shrinking, finished product inventories are accumulating, and traders are reporting that yarn prices are falling.
4) Reserve cotton increased the amount of resources released on September 6th, with a total of 15,000 tons released. The national policy aims to control prices.
Core Logic: In terms of macroeconomics, leading global economic indicators have fallen one after another, proving that the economy has begun to enter a downward trend. The three engines of domestic growth also show a lack of endogenous momentum in the later period. Currently, the high price of cotton is intended to control cotton prices by adjusting the release of resources and the rules of reserve cotton release. On the demand side, downstream textile mills and yarn mills are experiencing a decline in profits, falling prices, and accumulation of finished product inventories, indicating a weak peak season.
Variables to Watch: Acquisition progress; Xinjiang weather; US-China trade relations
Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.
In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.
On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Contact
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Address: 10th Floor, Henan Nongxin Building, No. 19 Commercial Outer Ring Road, Zhengdong New District,Zhengzhou, China
Tel：86037165836206
Email：tongzhou@tongzhoucotton.com
Mobile
CopyRight © 2025 Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.