Tongzhou Market Information Brief, Week 1 of August 2021
I. American Cotton
Positive Factors:
1) US liquidity has not yet tightened, and loose monetary policy continues.
2) Consumption in Europe and the US is still recovering.
3) Indian cotton prices continue to rise, narrowing the price difference between the US and India, raising the bottom of global cotton prices.
Negative Factors:
1) Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that bond purchases should be reduced "as quickly as possible," and may begin in October.
2) The resurgence of the epidemic in the US and Southeast Asia has to some extent suppressed cotton demand.
3) US weather conditions are excellent, the good rate is at a historical high, the abandonment rate continues to decline, and recent rainfall in India is conducive to increasing/stabilizing cotton production.
II. Zhengzhou Cotton
Positive Factors:
1) Xinjiang is expected to reduce production by 400,000 tons, and the expansion of downstream textile production capacity will stimulate the rise in new-year seed cotton prices.
2) The epidemic in Southeast Asia is recurring, and domestic orders will not be transferred abroad for the time being.
3) The off-season is about to end, yarn mills are still profitable, and downstream demand is good.
4) In the futures market, it is mainly the bulls who are active, and the tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears has not yet ended. There will be more market fluctuations in the future.
Negative Factors:
1) The relationship between China and the US is relatively tense, and the possibility of future repair is small, facing a more complex environment.
2) Bulk commodities may be identified as callbacks, and the export order index of foreign demand has fallen for four consecutive months.
3) The domestic epidemic has been relatively severe recently, and market sentiment has been affected.
Core Logic: The time for the global economic upturn cycle has not yet arrived, the upturn has not ended, global liquidity has not shrunk, and the economic peak has not yet appeared; downstream profits are good, and demand is steadily improving; however, the resurgence of the epidemic at home and abroad, and the US PMI index performance is not as expected, the market is somewhat worried about the economy.
Variables to Watch: Epidemic; Weather; China-US trade relations
Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.
In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.
On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Contact
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Address: 10th Floor, Henan Nongxin Building, No. 19 Commercial Outer Ring Road, Zhengdong New District,Zhengzhou, China
Tel：86037165836206
Email：tongzhou@tongzhoucotton.com
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