Tongzhou Market Information Brief, Week 1 of July 2021
I. US Cotton
Positive factors:
1) Global economic data has reached a new high in years, prompting 08 the possibility of further upward adjustments to annual global cotton consumption. 2122 2) Pakistan, China, northern India, and the United States have seen year-on-year decreases in planting areas, which is unfavorable for increased global production.
3) The seasonal slowdown in the downstream cotton industry in China and Southeast Asia is not obvious, orders remain strong, and the replenishment demand for cotton continues to rise.
4) Indian cotton prices continue to climb, narrowing the price gap between the US and India, and
raising the bottom of global cotton prices. Negative factors:
1) The market remains concerned about the tightening of global liquidity, especially in the US.
2) The progress of planting in the US is accelerating, with an improvement in the excellent rate; the global weather system is relatively normal, and water reserves in Australia continue to improve, which is conducive to
the steady 2122 increase in annual global production. / 3) The spread of the Indian virus globally has, to some extent, suppressed cotton demand.
II.
Zhengzhou Cotton 2) Cotton yarn mills still have high profits and have a desire to replenish inventory at lower prices, supporting cotton prices.
Positive factors:
1) Global economic data has reached a new high in years, prompting 08 the possibility of further upward adjustments to annual global cotton consumption. 2122 2) Pakistan, China, northern India, and the United States have seen year-on-year decreases in planting areas, which is unfavorable for increased global production.
3) Due to abnormal weather during the planting season and a decrease in the planting area in Xinjiang, the market estimates that production will likely decrease year-on-year.
4) Downstream industries are performing better than expected during the off-season, and orders continue to be sustained.
1) Overall global weather conditions are good, and no major weather factors affecting single yields have been observed, which is generally conducive to increased production.
1) The market remains concerned about the tightening of global liquidity, especially in the US.
2) Commercial cotton inventories remain relatively high, and the release of
tens of thousands of tons has increased market supply. The market does not lack cotton. 60 3) The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is large, and the demand for imported cotton and imported yarn has increased significantly, further increasing domestic supply pressure.
Core Logic:
1) The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is relatively large above the sliding scale tax, which has driven industrial regression. The time is
1-12 months. 2) Downward pressure is supported by the downstream industry, while upward pressure is caused by inventory pressure. Long-term is driven by the improvement of the global economy, while short-term pressure is due to concerns about the tightening of global liquidity.
Variables to Watch:
Fiscal and monetary policies of various countries, weather-related production variables, downstream industry tracking, and release policies 各国财政货币政策、天气导致的生产变量、下游产业跟踪、抛储政策
Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.
In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.
On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Contact
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Address: 10th Floor, Henan Nongxin Building, No. 19 Commercial Outer Ring Road, Zhengdong New District,Zhengzhou, China
Tel：86037165836206
Email：tongzhou@tongzhoucotton.com
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