Tongzhou Market Information Brief, Week 4 of January 2021


I. Overseas Market Information
1) As of the 21st, the cumulative inspected volume of US cotton reached 13.628 million bales, accounting for 95% of the estimated 14.95 million bales.
2) As of the 14th, the cumulative sales of US cotton reached 2.9 million tons, with cumulative shipments of 1.47 million tons. The contract progress reached 87.3%, and the shipment progress reached 44.3%, still the fastest pace in history. US cotton exports are expected to be around 16 million bales.
3) As of the 22nd, India's cumulative cotton arrivals reached 3.04 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. Daily arrivals fell below 25,000 tons last week. Cumulative reserves reached 1.47 million tons.
4) Yarn orders slowed down, and overseas yarn mill processing profits declined, but remained at a high level.  
II. Domestic Market Information
1) As of January 22, a cumulative 5.53 million tons were processed, including 5.38 million tons in Xinjiang and 145,000 tons in mainland China. The average daily processing volume last week was 18,000 tons, the highest in recent years. Based on the current listing progress in Xinjiang, the estimated output of Xinjiang is 5.44 million tons.
2) Last week, 4,000 tons of 1920 warehouse receipts were cancelled, and 15,240 tons of 2021 warehouse receipts were registered, including an increase of 5,240 tons in mainland China and 10,000 tons in Xinjiang. On the 22nd, the total amount of warehouse receipts was 656,200 tons, of which 95% was new cotton and 5% was old cotton. The proportion of 3128 and 3129 cotton in new cotton remained at 83%.
3) Downstream textile enterprises saw an increase in yarn inventory, a decrease in gray fabric machine operation rates, and a decline in textile enterprise processing profits.
4) Port inventory of imported yarn reached 81,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises using imported yarn slightly decreased.
III. Domestic Market Bullish and Bearish Factors
Bullish Factors
1) Inventory across the industrial chain remains low. The probability of price declines to reduce inventory is currently low; it is more likely that the industrial chain will continue to actively replenish inventory, leading to price increases.
2) Although processing profits have declined, they are still at historically high levels.
3) Hedging pressure has been significantly released.
Bearish Factors
1) Most downstream weaving mills will be on holiday from the 25th, weakening short-term yarn demand.
2) Domestic cotton inventory pressure remains relatively high. If domestic cotton is not withdrawn and sold first, it may lead to price declines, but this risk is low before March.
3) Imported yarn inventory increased for the second consecutive week.
IV. Overseas Market Bullish and Bearish Factors
Bullish Factors
1) Although China's overseas machine operation rates have slightly adjusted, they remain at a high level.
2) The balance sheet for US cotton is expected to tighten further.
3) Quota issuance will help to digest imported cotton.
Bearish Factors
1) Agricultural products have generally adjusted, and the cotton price ratio has risen.
2) The new US administration has taken a tough stance towards China, especially regarding the Xinjiang issue.
3) Global pandemic prevention measures have been upgraded, affecting consumption.

 

Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance


On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.


Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025


1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.


In 2024, China's exports of dyed and printed fabrics to Vietnam and Bangladesh increased significantly.


In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.


President Huang Hongyu was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference


On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.