Tongzhou Market Information Brief, Week 1 of January 2021
I. Pandemic and Vaccine Progress
As of the 1st, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide reached 84.34 million, with 22.84 million existing confirmed cases, 1.83 million cumulative deaths, and over 60 million cumulative recoveries. On the 2nd, the number of new cases abroad reached 580,000, with the average daily increase last week being around 550,000, remaining stable. On the 2nd, the US daily increase hit a new high of 280,000, and the UK saw a daily increase of 57,000. A new variant virus was found in 33 towns across 3 US states.
Vaccine progress: China has authorized the use of Sinopharm's vaccine, with Sinopharm announcing an efficacy rate of 79%. The WHO gave emergency approval to the Pfizer vaccine, and the UK authorized the emergency use of AstraZeneca.
II. Overseas Market Information
1) As of January 1st, a cumulative 2.86 million tons of US cotton had been listed, accounting for 82.61% of the estimated value. Due to holidays, the weekly listing volume last week was only 70,000 tons.
2) As of the 24th, the cumulative sales of US cotton reached 2.71 million tons, with cumulative shipments of 1.27 million tons. The contract progress was 82.9%, and the shipment progress was 38.8%, which is still the fastest pace in history.
3) As of the 1st, India's cumulative listing was approximately 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 40%, of which 52.5% entered CCI inventory. Last week, India's old cotton reserve price increased by 300 rupees (approximately 30 USD, about 76.3), and the new cotton price increased by 200 rupees (approximately 30 USD, about 78.05).
4) Last week, the machine operation rates in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam remained stable. The cotton yarn processing profits in India and Vietnam are at historically high levels.
III. Domestic Market Information
1) As of the 31st, 5.02 million tons were processed domestically, and 4.76 million tons were inspected.
2) Last week, 3,520 tons of 1920 warehouse receipts were cancelled, mainly 3129 and 4129. 65,000 tons of 2021 warehouse receipts were registered, including an increase of 5,120 tons in inland warehouse receipts and nearly 60,000 tons in Xinjiang warehouse receipts. On the 31st, the total amount of warehouse receipts was 537,300 tons, of which 92% was new cotton and 8% was old cotton. Among the new cotton, 3128 and 3129 cotton accounted for 84%.
3) Downstream textile enterprises' yarn inventories continued to decline, the price increase of yarn slowed down, the operation rate of grey fabrics decreased, and weaving continued to replenish yarn inventories. Textile enterprises' cotton inventories are at a historically high level.
4) The port inventory of imported yarn was 78,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises of imported yarn decreased.
IV. Domestic Market Bullish and Bearish Factors
Bullish Factors
1) The general price increase of yarn due to downstream spring and summer orders and pre-year stocking demand, smooth price transmission, and improved profits. The situation of low inventory of finished products in the industrial chain continues.
2) The remaining South Xinjiang resources have higher costs, and the speed of warehouse receipt generation has slowed down.
Bearish Factors
1) The operating rate of grey fabrics continues to decline, and raw material inventories are at a high level.
2) The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is large, and the impact on the domestic market after the quota release in January.
V. Overseas Market Bullish and Bearish Factors
Bullish Factors
1) Overseas machine operation rates remain high, and the processing profits of weaving factories are at a high level.
2) The balance sheet of US cotton is expected to tighten further.
3) The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is bullish for foreign cotton.
4) The price ratio of US cotton to US soybeans/US corn has further decreased, and the price ratio of agricultural products is bullish for US cotton.
Bearish Factors
1) Pay attention to the impact on consumption after overseas lockdown measures.
2) Pay attention to the development of the overseas epidemic and the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Leaders from Xiamen C&D Group visited Tongzhou for investigation and guidance
On March 3, Wang Yongqing, Vice President of Xiamen CNOOC Group, visited Tongzhou Group for investigation and guidance. Wei Gangmin, Chairman of our company; Huang Hongyu, President; Li Tao, Vice President; and Zhang Zhiyan, Director of the General Office, met with and participated in a symposium.
Tongzhou Cotton Market Brief, Week 1 of March 2025
1) This week's National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC) in China boosted market expectations for steady growth. In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector.
In 2024, China's dyeing industry saw rapid export growth to ASEAN and RCEP member countries, exceeding the overall export growth rate. However, this growth was accompanied by a decline in prices. From January to December, China's exports of eight major dyeing products to ASEAN totaled 7.908 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, 4.61 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 23.58% of total exports. The average export price was US\$1.19 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, 0.64 percentage points lower than the overall decline. Exports to RCEP member countries totaled 8.431 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, 3.82 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. The average export price was US\$1.17 per meter, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, 0.60 percentage points lower than the overall decline.
On February 28, Mr. Huang Hongyu, President of our company, was invited to attend the 2025 Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference and, as a guest speaker at the "Xiangshan Roundtable," shared his views on the cotton market and trading opportunities.
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Contact
Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd.
Address: 10th Floor, Henan Nongxin Building, No. 19 Commercial Outer Ring Road, Zhengdong New District,Zhengzhou, China
Tel：86037165836206
Email：tongzhou@tongzhoucotton.com
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